Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Lane ThomasBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Leody TaverasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane BazPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Basallo homered to center (404 feet).2–8
- 6Alonso singled to right, Henderson scored, Alonso out stretching at second, Ward to third.2–7
- 6Henderson reached on infield single to pitcher, Jackson scored.2–6
- 6Taveras scored on a balk, Jackson to third on a balk.2–5
- 6Taveras scored on a balk, Jackson to third on a balk.2–5
- 6Jackson hit a ground rule double, O'Neill scored, Taveras to third.2–4
- 6Taveras singled to center, Alexander scored, O'Neill to third.2–3
- 3Thomas singled to left, Witt Jr. scored.2–2
- 2Taveras homered to center (448 feet), Alexander scored.1–2
- 2Collins tripled to right, Rojas scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 58%
- ML KC +129 / BAL -156
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 5.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −2 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 1.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +55 Elo | BAL 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 28th of 3017–32 | Road vs home | 27–2516th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 27th of 301472 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–49 | 47–49 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–21 | 25–29 |
| Underdog | 34–28 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders | 46–48–2 | 50–42–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 10–15 BAL in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 25.