Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luinder AvilaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Samuel BasalloBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Basallo homered to right (373 feet), Alonso scored.3–5
- 8Collins homered to center (415 feet).3–3
- 4Alexander homered to left center (436 feet).2–3
- 4Rojas doubled to left, Massey scored.2–2
- 4Caglianone homered to right center (368 feet).1–2
- 2Henderson singled to center, Alexander scored, Holliday to third.0–2
- 2Holliday singled to right, Beavers scored, Alexander to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML KC +124 / BAL -149
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.0%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -134
- KC +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.9 – 5.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +9 | KC: Luinder Avila: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +28 Elo | BAL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 28th of 3017–30 | Road vs home | 25–2516th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 27th of 301475 | Elo rating | 148620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–47 | 45–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–21 | 23–29 |
| Underdog | 34–26 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders | 46–46–2 | 50–40–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 10–13 BAL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.