Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting1-4
- Noah CameronPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Henderson homered to right center (417 feet).1–6
- 7Perez hit sacrifice fly to center, Caglianone scored.1–5
- 6Ward homered to right (354 feet).0–5
- 5Mayo homered to left (440 feet).0–4
- 4Alonso homered to center (420 feet), Ward scored.0–3
- 2Basallo singled to right, Alonso scored, Basallo out stretching at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 59%
- ML KC +135 / BAL -163
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 56.1%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -146
- KC +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +5 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +43 Elo | BAL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 28th of 3017–31 | Road vs home | 26–2517th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 27th of 301474 | Elo rating | 148720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–48 | 46–49 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–21 | 24–29 |
| Underdog | 34–27 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders | 46–47–2 | 50–41–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 10–14 BAL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.