San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting4-6, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- German MarquezPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Song singled to right, Andujar scored and Rengifo scored, Bowen to second.19–2
- 9Bowen hit by pitch, Sheets scored, Rengifo to second, Andujar to third.17–2
- 9France homered to left center (416 feet).16–2
- 9Merrill homered to right (419 feet), Song scored.15–2
- 8France homered to left (365 feet), Song scored, Tatis Jr. scored and Machado scored.13–2
- 8Tatis Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Rengifo scored on error, Song safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Tolbert, Song safe at third on error.9–2
- 6Tatis Jr. homered to left (401 feet).8–2
- 4Merrill homered to left center (405 feet).7–2
- 3Collins doubled to center, Caglianone scored.6–2
- 3Campusano singled to right, Bowen scored.6–1
- 3Bowen doubled to left, Bogaerts scored.5–1
- 2Machado hit sacrifice fly to left, Tatis Jr. scored.4–1
- 2Merrill singled to right, Campusano scored, Tatis Jr. to third.3–1
- 2Tatis Jr. singled to right, Bowen scored and Rengifo scored, Campusano to third.2–1
- 1Caglianone homered to right (432 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML SD -105 / KC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- KC: Elo 49.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.7 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −3 | SD: German Marquez: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +5 Elo | SD 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 19th of 3020–25 | Road vs home | 23–2621st of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Elo rating | 147327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–52 | 49–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 14–21 |
| Underdog | 30–22 | 35–29 |
| Overs–unders | 42–54–2 | 48–49–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 5–6 KC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.