Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Nick LoftinBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Hao-Yu LeeBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 4Loftin doubled to left, Perez scored.1–2
- 1Lee singled to center, Torres scored, Dingler to second.0–2
- 1Greene hit sacrifice fly to left, Keith scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- DET 70%
- ML KC +218 / DET -272
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.1 pts
- DET: Elo 58.8%, market 69.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -233
- KC +233 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 2.8 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +10 | KC: Beck Way (no track record yet) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +62 Elo | DET 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 67.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 69.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 29th of 3017–34 | Road vs home | 28–2310th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 27th of 301471 | Elo rating | 151011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–53 | 49–54 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 23–36 |
| Underdog | 37–29 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders | 50–52–2 | 43–56–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 16–30 DET in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 46.