Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Hao-Yu LeeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9McKinstry doubled to center, Torkelson scored.5–1
- 4Lee homered to center (389 feet), Greene scored and Torkelson scored.4–1
- 2Torkelson homered to left center (391 feet).1–1
- 1Suzuki homered to left center (397 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML DET +105 / CHC -126
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.8%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.9 – 4.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −7 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +40 Elo | CHC 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 26th of 3020–31 | Road vs home | 30–217th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 14th of 301506 | Elo rating | 15374th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–53 | 46–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–35 | 25–41 |
| Underdog | 25–18 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 43–54–4 | 52–43–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–6 CHC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.