Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting3-5
- Ryan JohnsonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Greene homered to right center (390 feet).2–3
- 6Neto singled to right, Peraza scored.1–3
- 5Soler grounded out to shortstop, Neto scored, Schanuel to second, Trout to third.1–2
- 2Peraza reached on infield single to third, Grissom scored.1–1
- 1McGonigle homered to left center (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML DET -149 / LAA +123
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- DET: Elo 56.6%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -133
- LAA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.1 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Ryan Johnson: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +46 Elo | DET 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 26th of 3019–29 | Road vs home | 21–2726th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301508 | Elo rating | 144629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–51 | 47–52 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–34 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 24–17 | 40–35 |
| Overs–unders | 41–53–4 | 46–52–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 14–11 LAA in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 25.