Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Eduardo ValenciaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Torkelson grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Vierling scored, Dingler out at second, McGonigle to third.4–2
- 5Valencia homered to right center (386 feet).4–1
- 4Hill singled to left, Realmuto scored.4–0
- 4Realmuto doubled to left, Stott scored and Marsh scored.3–0
- 3Turner hit sacrifice fly to center, Hill scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML PHI -148 / DET +123
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 48.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -133
- DET +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.1 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +6 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +8 Elo | DET 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.38th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 8th of 3027–22 | Road vs home | 27–2110th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 7th of 301523 | Elo rating | 150911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–55 | 46–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 28–41 | 22–32 |
| Underdog | 12–14 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 41–49–5 | 41–49–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 7–3 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.