Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Derek HillBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Torkelson homered to left center (389 feet), Greene scored.2–10
- 7Keith homered to right center (415 feet).2–8
- 6Outman scored on a balk.2–7
- 6Outman scored on a balk.2–7
- 6Outman tripled to center, Valencia scored and McKinstry scored.2–6
- 6McKinstry hit sacrifice bunt, Vierling scored, McKinstry to first on throwing error by pitcher Mayza, Valencia to third.2–4
- 6Valencia singled to left, Greene scored, Vierling to third.2–3
- 4Hill singled to left, Harper scored, Stott to second, Bohm to third.2–2
- 3McGonigle homered to center (414 feet), Rogers scored.1–2
- 3Hill homered to center (427 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML PHI -101 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- DET: Elo 51.5%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −8 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +10 Elo | DET 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.29th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 5th of 3027–21 | Road vs home | 26–2110th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 6th of 301526 | Elo rating | 150613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–54 | 45–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 28–41 | 21–32 |
| Underdog | 12–13 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 40–49–5 | 40–49–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 7–2 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.