Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-4
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Stott reached on infield single to shortstop, Realmuto scored. Philadelphia Phillies challenged: call on the field was overturned.5–0
- 6Realmuto doubled to left, Harper scored, Marsh scored on error and Bohm scored, Realmuto safe at third on throwing error by shortstop McGonigle.4–0
- 3Schwarber singled to left, Realmuto scored, Schwarber to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML PHI +113 / DET -136
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- DET: Elo 49.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -123
- PHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.3 – 3.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +12 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.96 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +6 Elo | PHI 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.38th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 6th of 3028–22 | Road vs home | 27–2210th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 7th of 301524 | Elo rating | 150712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–55 | 46–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 29–41 | 22–32 |
| Underdog | 12–14 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 41–50–5 | 41–50–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 8–3 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.