Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Hao-Yu LeeBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-4
- Reid DetmersPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lee doubled to center, Greene scored and Outman scored. Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.2–1
- 1Lowe grounded out to second, Neto scored, Soler to second, Schanuel to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML DET -120 / LAA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- DET: Elo 57.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +4 | DET: Troy Melton: team allows 0.97 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +52 Elo | DET 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 27th of 3017–29 | Road vs home | 21–2525th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 12th of 301505 | Elo rating | 145029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–50 | 46–51 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–33 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 24–17 | 39–34 |
| Overs–unders | 41–51–4 | 46–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 12–11 LAA in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 23.