Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Ramirez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bregman scored, Hoerner out at second.8–6
- 10Torkelson singled to center, Dingler scored and Greene scored, Torkelson to second, Malgeri to third.8–5
- 10Dingler reached on infield single to shortstop, Lee scored, Greene to second.6–5
- 8Happ homered to right center (432 feet), Bregman scored.5–5
- 8Dingler homered to left center (382 feet).5–3
- 3Busch homered to center (401 feet).4–3
- 3Suzuki homered to center (419 feet), Amaya scored.4–2
- 1Dingler homered to center (396 feet).4–0
- 1Greene homered to right center (408 feet), Torres scored and Keith scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 50%
- ML DET -108 / CHC -112
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.0%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- CHC -102
- DET +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.7 – 5.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +15 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +70 Elo | CHC 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3019–30 | Road vs home | 29–207th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 11th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15364th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–52 | 45–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 23–35 | 24–40 |
| Underdog | 24–17 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 41–54–4 | 50–43–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–5 CHC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.