Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ty MaddenPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Michael ConfortoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Dingler homered to left center (392 feet), Lee scored.2–11
- 7Bregman singled to left, Swanson scored, Suzuki to second.0–11
- 7Suzuki grounded into fielder's choice to third, Happ scored, Crow-Armstrong out at second, Swanson to third. Chicago Cubs challenged: call on the field was overturned.0–10
- 5Conforto homered to right center (383 feet), Swanson scored.0–9
- 3Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Swanson scored, Crow-Armstrong to second.0–7
- 1Suzuki walked, Hoerner scored, Crow-Armstrong to second, Happ to third.0–6
- 1Crow-Armstrong walked, Busch scored, Happ to second, Hoerner to third.0–5
- 1Happ reached on infield single to second, Kelly scored, Hoerner to second, Busch to third.0–4
- 1Busch singled to right, Bregman scored, Kelly to second.0–3
- 1Kelly singled to right, Crow-Armstrong scored and Suzuki scored, Bregman to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML DET +102 / CHC -123
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.7%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- CHC -111
- DET +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.6 – 3.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −20 | DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: David Peterson: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +40 Elo | CHC 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 26th of 3020–30 | Road vs home | 29–218th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 11th of 301509 | Elo rating | 15345th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–52 | 45–55 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–35 | 24–41 |
| Underdog | 25–17 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 42–54–4 | 51–43–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–5 CHC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.