Athletics at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis MoralesPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cortes grounded into fielder's choice to second, Walton scored, McNeil out at second.8–11
- 9McNeil singled to right, White scored, Walton to third.7–11
- 8Jeffers reached on infield single to third, Kreidler scored.6–11
- 8Kreidler tripled to center, Lee scored.6–10
- 7Keaschall hit sacrifice fly to right, Clemens scored.6–9
- 7Cortes hit sacrifice fly to left, Butler scored.6–8
- 7McNeil grounded out to pitcher, White scored, Walton to second, Butler to third.5–8
- 7Walton walked, Soderstrom scored, Butler to second, White to third.4–8
- 6Martin hit sacrifice fly, Kreidler scored, Martin to first on fielding error by left fielder Soderstrom, Martin to third.3–8
- 6Kurtz homered to center (412 feet), McNeil scored and Wilson scored.3–7
- 4Kreidler scored on throwing error by catcher Heim.0–7
- 4Kreidler scored on throwing error by catcher Heim.0–7
- 2Jeffers singled to right, Lee scored and Martin scored.0–6
- 2Jackson scored on a balk, Martin to second on a balk, Lee to third on a balk.0–4
- 2Jackson scored on a balk, Martin to second on a balk, Lee to third on a balk.0–4
- 1Clemens tripled to right, Clemens scored on throwing error by shortstop Williams and Lewis scored.0–3
- 1Lewis grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Martin scored, Jeffers out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 59%
- ML ATH +135 / MIN -163
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.3%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -146
- ATH +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.6 – 5.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | −14 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +58 Elo | MIN 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 19th of 3024–30 | Road vs home | 27–2616th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 28th of 301450 | Elo rating | 148124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–55 | 53–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 13–25 |
| Underdog | 38–27 | 40–28 |
| Overs–unders | 50–50–4 | 56–42–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 7–15 MIN in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 22.