Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luinder AvilaPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Massey homered to right (399 feet), Collins scored.5–4
- 5Dingler singled to center, McGonigle scored and Greene scored.3–4
- 5Greene doubled to center, Lee scored and Keith scored, McGonigle to third.3–2
- 4Maile doubled to left, Tolbert scored.3–0
- 1Loftin scored, Tolbert safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Lee, Collins to second, Caglianone to third.2–0
- 1Thomas homered to right (349 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 63%
- ML KC +157 / DET -192
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- DET: Elo 52.6%, market 62.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -169
- KC +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.9 – 5.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −26 | KC: Luinder Avila: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 1.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +18 Elo | DET 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 28th of 3018–35 | Road vs home | 29–2410th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 27th of 301472 | Elo rating | 150910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–53 | 49–56 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 23–38 |
| Underdog | 39–29 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders | 50–54–2 | 43–58–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 17–31 DET in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 48.