Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Naylor doubled to right, Canzone scored.2–4
- 8Young singled to center, We. Wilson scored.1–4
- 6Ohtani doubled to center, Rushing scored.0–4
- 4Pages reached on infield single to shortstop, Betts scored, Ohtani to second, T. Hernández to third.0–3
- 3Freeman reached on infield single to third, Ohtani scored, Pages to second.0–2
- 1Pages homered to left (372 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML SEA +153 / LAD -186
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.1%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -165
- SEA +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −1 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +78 Elo | LAD 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.41st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3023–32 | Road vs home | 31–205th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15681st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–61 | 50–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–49 | 44–55 |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 53–48–7 | 49–56–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–9 LAD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.