Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Emerson scored on Latz wild pitch.4–5
- 9Emerson scored on Latz wild pitch.4–5
- 6Lopez hit sacrifice bunt, Carter scored, Burger to second.3–5
- 6Burger singled to center, Nimmo scored, Carter to third.3–4
- 5Canzone doubled to center, Arozarena scored and Emerson scored.3–3
- 4Burger homered to right (362 feet), Duran scored.1–3
- 2We. Wilson singled to right, Naylor scored, Young to third.1–1
- 1Langford homered to left (384 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML SEA -118 / TEX -102
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 51.2%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- SEA -107
- TEX +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 3.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −12 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +9 Elo | SEA 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3021–29 | Road vs home | 25–2415th of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 9th of 301511 | Elo rating | 149516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–59 | 45–57 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–48 | 18–34 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 27–23 |
| Overs–unders | 48–48–7 | 52–43–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2–3 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 26–19 TEX in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 45.