Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting5-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Langford homered to left (422 feet).5–8
- 8Baldwin homered to center (392 feet).4–8
- 8Higashioka doubled to right, Cauley scored.4–7
- 7Hicklen doubled to center, White scored, Riley thrown out at home.3–7
- 7Riley singled to center, Dubón scored and Olson scored, White to second.3–6
- 5Burger singled to left, Langford scored, Nimmo to second.3–4
- 5Jung hit sacrifice fly to center, Pederson scored.2–4
- 5Langford doubled to left, Lopez scored, Pederson to third.1–4
- 4Riley homered to center (413 feet).0–4
- 3Baldwin homered to right center (395 feet).0–3
- 2Riley homered to left (416 feet).0–2
- 1Harris II hit sacrifice fly to right, Baldwin scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML TEX -117 / ATL -103
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 44.3%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- TEX -106
- ATL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +5 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +40 Elo | ATL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 11th of 3026–26 | Road vs home | 28–196th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15286th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–54 | 55–42 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–33 | 34–32 |
| Underdog | 27–21 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 49–42–7 | 46–45–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 6–5 ATL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.