Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Burger homered to left center (407 feet), Jung scored and Nimmo scored.3–7
- 8Langford homered to left (404 feet).3–4
- 7Diaz homered to left (415 feet), Wade Jr. scored.3–3
- 6Alvarez homered to right center (455 feet).1–3
- 5Pederson homered to right (396 feet).0–3
- 1Burger grounded out to shortstop, Jung scored.0–2
- 1Nimmo doubled to left, Langford scored, Jung to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 55%
- ML HOU -137 / TEX +114
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 49.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- TEX +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.5 – 4.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −15 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +4 Elo | TEX 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 13th of 3023–25 | Road vs home | 22–2115th of 30 |
| 28th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 19th of 301490 | Elo rating | 150015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–48 | 42–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–23 | 17–31 |
| Underdog | 33–25 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders | 49–40–6 | 44–42–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 31–22 TEX in their last 53 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 53.