Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Evan CarterBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Owen MurphyPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Dubón doubled to left, Harris II scored.7–6
- 6Nimmo singled to center, Langford scored and Pederson scored, Jung to third.7–5
- 6Carter homered to right (356 feet), Duran scored.5–5
- 3Harris II homered to right (405 feet).3–5
- 3Nimmo singled to right, Pederson scored, Langford to second.3–4
- 3Langford singled to left, Higashioka scored, Pederson to third.2–4
- 2Albies hit sacrifice fly to center, Jarvis scored.1–4
- 2Baldwin singled to center, Riley scored, Jarvis to third.1–3
- 2White homered to left (406 feet), Dubón scored.1–2
- 1Pederson homered to right (419 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML TEX -103 / ATL -117
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.0%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -106
- TEX +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −11 | TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Owen Murphy (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +49 Elo | ATL 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 3025–26 | Road vs home | 28–185th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15296th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–54 | 55–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–33 | 34–31 |
| Underdog | 26–21 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 48–42–7 | 45–45–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 5–5 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.