Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Nicky LopezBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mederos singled to left, Hicklen scored and Mateo scored.1–15
- 8Riley homered to left (390 feet).1–13
- 8Lopez singled to left, Cauley scored.1–12
- 7Dubón singled to center, Harris II scored.0–12
- 7Harris II doubled to right, Baldwin scored, Olson scored and Albies scored.0–11
- 5Baldwin singled to center, Jarvis scored.0–8
- 5Jarvis doubled to right, Smith scored.0–7
- 4Olson homered to right (420 feet).0–6
- 4Baldwin homered to center (419 feet), Jarvis scored and Hicklen scored.0–5
- 2Albies singled to right, Riley scored, Baldwin to second.0–2
- 2Baldwin singled to left, Smith scored, Riley to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 66%
- ML TEX +179 / ATL -219
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.4%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -192
- TEX +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.3 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +15 | TEX: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +66 Elo | ATL 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 65.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 11th of 3025–25 | Road vs home | 27–186th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Elo rating | 15266th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–53 | 54–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–33 | 33–31 |
| Underdog | 26–20 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 47–42–7 | 44–45–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 5–4 ATL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.