Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching5.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran homered to left (372 feet), Cauley scored.9–3
- 9Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Walker scored.9–1
- 9Paredes scored on a balk, Walker to third on a balk.8–1
- 9Paredes scored on a balk, Walker to third on a balk.8–1
- 4Duran homered to right center (378 feet).7–1
- 4Vázquez homered to left center (392 feet).7–0
- 3Wade Jr. homered to right (400 feet), Alvarez scored, Paredes scored and Altuve scored.6–0
- 1Alvarez homered to center (425 feet), Peña scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML HOU +100 / TEX -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −6 | HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +22 Elo | TEX 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 15th of 3023–26 | Road vs home | 23–2113th of 30 |
| 28th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 19th of 301488 | Elo rating | 150315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–49 | 43–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 17–31 |
| Underdog | 33–25 | 26–20 |
| Overs–unders | 50–40–6 | 45–42–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 31–23 TEX in their last 54 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 54.