Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nimmo singled to center, Langford scored, Jung to third.5–6
- 8Higashioka homered to left (366 feet).5–5
- 8Smith homered to left (405 feet).5–4
- 7Paredes singled to center, Dezenzo scored and Diaz scored, Alvarez to second.4–4
- 7Peña hit sacrifice fly to left, Wade Jr. scored.2–4
- 5Nimmo tripled to right, Jung scored.1–4
- 4Altuve homered to left center (387 feet).1–3
- 2Pederson doubled to right, Carter scored and Lopez scored.0–3
- 2Lopez singled to right, Duran scored, Carter to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 56%
- ML HOU +119 / TEX -144
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 55.4%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -129
- HOU +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | −14 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 1.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +38 Elo | TEX 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 13th of 3024–26 | Road vs home | 23–2217th of 30 |
| 28th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 20th of 301491 | Elo rating | 150017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–49 | 43–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 17–32 |
| Underdog | 34–25 | 26–20 |
| Overs–unders | 51–40–6 | 46–42–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 32–23 TEX in their last 55 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 55.