Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lowe homered to left (362 feet).4–2
- 8Rodríguez homered to left center (409 feet).3–2
- 7We. Wilson homered to left (411 feet).3–1
- 5Stewart hit sacrifice fly to center, Friedl scored, Arroyo to third.3–0
- 4Suárez homered to center (405 feet).2–0
- 1De La Cruz homered to right center (395 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML CIN -102 / SEA -119
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.1%, market 51.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -108
- CIN +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.7 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −9 | CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +29 Elo | SEA 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.128th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 14th of 3023–26 | Road vs home | 30–217th of 30 |
| 6th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 24th of 301477 | Elo rating | 15149th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–49 | 44–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–21 | 31–46 |
| Underdog | 35–28 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 56–42–1 | 48–46–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–1–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–7 SEA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.