Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting3-4, 3 HR, 5 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Castro homered to right (435 feet).9–6
- 8Goodman homered to center (442 feet), Moniak scored.9–5
- 6Goodman homered to left center (435 feet), McCarthy scored.9–3
- 5Stephenson homered to left center (418 feet).9–1
- 2Stewart homered to center (456 feet), Myers scored and De La Cruz scored.8–1
- 1Goodman homered to center (425 feet).5–1
- 1Stephenson homered to left center (435 feet), Suárez scored.5–0
- 1Lowe homered to right (420 feet), De La Cruz scored and Bleday scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 60%
- ML CIN -171 / COL +141
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 55.9%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -152
- COL +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 6.0 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +5 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +41 Elo | CIN 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3022–25 | Road vs home | 23–2621st of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15073rd of 30 |
| 25th of 301478 | Elo rating | 141730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–48 | 54–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–21 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 35–27 | 52–42 |
| Overs–unders | 54–42–1 | 46–50–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 18–6 COL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 24.