Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Willi CastroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gabriel HughesPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9De La Cruz homered to center (434 feet).7–2
- 8Steer homered to center (421 feet).6–2
- 7Castro homered to left (382 feet).5–2
- 7Stewart hit sacrifice fly to center, Hayes scored.5–1
- 6Suárez homered to left (415 feet).4–1
- 6Steer homered to left (404 feet), Bleday scored.3–1
- 5Johnston hit sacrifice fly to center, Karros scored.1–1
- 1Stewart doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- COL 50%
- ML CIN -108 / COL -112
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- COL: Elo 47.0%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- COL -102
- CIN +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 6.0 – 6.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +20 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Gabriel Hughes: team allows 1.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +21 Elo | CIN 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.929th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 15th of 3021–24 | Road vs home | 22–2522nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15073rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301479 | Elo rating | 141630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–47 | 53–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–21 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 34–26 | 52–42 |
| Overs–unders | 53–41–1 | 45–49–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 17–5 COL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 22.