Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jose TrevinoBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Julian GarciaPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Rockies- TJ RumfieldBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lowe singled to center, Marte scored, Myers to third.3–10
- 6Rumfield homered to right center (456 feet), Carrigg scored.2–10
- 5Trevino homered to left center (424 feet).2–8
- 3Moniak singled to right, Tovar scored.1–8
- 3McCarthy grounded out to second, Julien scored, Tovar to second.1–7
- 3Trevino homered to left center (395 feet).1–6
- 2Castro singled to right, Carrigg scored, Rumfield to second.0–6
- 2Rumfield singled to right, Moniak scored, Carrigg to third.0–5
- 2Moniak singled to center, McCarthy scored.0–4
- 2McCarthy reached on bunt single to third, Sullivan scored.0–3
- 1Rumfield singled to center, Carrigg scored.0–2
- 1Carrigg doubled to left, McCarthy scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML CIN -117 / COL -103
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.1%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- CIN -106
- COL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 6.3 – 6.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +16 | CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +22 Elo | CIN 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.929th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 14th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 22–2623rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15073rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301482 | Elo rating | 141330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–47 | 53–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–21 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 35–26 | 52–42 |
| Overs–unders | 53–42–1 | 45–50–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 18–5 COL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 23.