Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Dane MyersBatting1-3
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Raleigh grounded into fielder's choice to second, Emerson scored, Canzone out at second, Arozarena to third.0–8
- 7Raleigh homered to left center (408 feet), Arozarena scored, We. Wilson scored and Canzone scored.0–7
- 7We. Wilson doubled to right, Raley scored, Arozarena to third.0–3
- 7Emerson hit sacrifice fly to left, Robles scored.0–2
- 5Rodríguez reached on infield single to shortstop, Robles scored, Arozarena to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML CIN +129 / SEA -156
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -140
- CIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +48 Elo | SEA 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 13th of 3023–25 | Road vs home | 29–218th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301480 | Elo rating | 15129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–48 | 43–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–21 | 30–46 |
| Underdog | 35–27 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 55–42–1 | 47–46–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–6 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.