Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting4-4, 2 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Cam CauleyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Benintendi singled to center, B. Montgomery scored, Meidroth to third.4–2
- 4Díaz grounded into double play, third to first, Nimmo scored, Cauley to second, Duran out at third.3–2
- 4Benintendi singled to center, B. Montgomery scored, Meidroth to second.3–1
- 4Meidroth singled to right, Murakami scored, B. Montgomery to second.2–1
- 2Cauley homered to right (382 feet).1–1
- 2Meidroth singled to left, B. Montgomery scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 52%
- ML CHW -122 / TEX +101
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- CHW: Elo 46.4%, market 52.5%
- Fair odds
- CHW -110
- TEX +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.4 – 4.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +7 | CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Tyler Alexander: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +25 Elo | TEX 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 52.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3022–30 | Road vs home | 25–2315th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 20th of 301491 | Elo rating | 149716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–47 | 45–56 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 18–34 |
| Underdog | 45–28 | 27–22 |
| Overs–unders | 57–41–2 | 52–42–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 10–0 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–17 TEX in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 21.