Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting1-3
- Davis MartinPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-3
- Shane BieberPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Springer singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML CHW -106 / TOR -113
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.9%, market 50.8%
- Fair odds
- TOR -103
- CHW +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.5 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −3 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +21 Elo | TOR 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 24th of 3020–28 | Road vs home | 24–2620th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 20th of 301490 | Elo rating | 150315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–46 | 47–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 21–33 |
| Underdog | 42–27 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders | 55–39–2 | 50–43–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 8–14 TOR in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.