Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Sam AntonacciBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer MilesPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Peters hit sacrifice fly to right, B. Montgomery scored.12–4
- 7B. Montgomery tripled to right, Vargas scored, C. Montgomery scored and Grichuk scored.11–4
- 6Valenzuela homered to right (375 feet).8–4
- 5Springer homered to left (363 feet).8–3
- 5C. Montgomery doubled to left, Meidroth scored, Murakami scored and Antonacci scored.8–2
- 4Urías homered to left (373 feet).5–2
- 3Springer grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Clement scored, Okamoto out at second, Guerrero Jr. to third.5–1
- 2Antonacci homered to right (365 feet), Meidroth scored.5–0
- 2Meidroth singled to center, B. Montgomery scored.3–0
- 2B. Montgomery grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Benintendi scored, Teel out at third in rundown.2–0
- 2Teel doubled to left, C. Montgomery scored, Benintendi to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML CHW +113 / TOR -136
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- CHW +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.0 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −10 | CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Spencer Miles: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +22 Elo | TOR 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 25th of 3019–28 | Road vs home | 24–2520th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 21st of 301486 | Elo rating | 150711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–46 | 47–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 21–32 |
| Underdog | 41–27 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders | 54–39–2 | 49–43–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 7–14 TOR in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.