Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9B. Montgomery doubled to left, Grichuk scored.10–3
- 9Grichuk tripled to left, Acuña scored.9–3
- 9Acuña singled to right, Murakami scored and Vargas scored.8–3
- 9Vargas doubled to left, Meidroth scored, Murakami to third.6–3
- 7Burger homered to left center (408 feet).5–3
- 5Benintendi doubled to right, Antonacci scored, Vargas scored and Murakami scored.5–2
- 5Antonacci singled to center, Peters scored.2–2
- 3Vargas doubled to left, Antonacci scored.1–2
- 2Carter singled to right, Duran scored.0–2
- 1Pederson homered to right center (423 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 60%
- ML CHW +141 / TEX -171
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 56.0%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -152
- CHW +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.5 – 4.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +15 | CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +42 Elo | TEX 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3021–29 | Road vs home | 24–2216th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 20th of 301491 | Elo rating | 149717th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–46 | 44–55 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 17–33 |
| Underdog | 44–27 | 27–22 |
| Overs–unders | 55–41–2 | 50–42–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 10–0 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–16 TEX in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 19.