Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting2-4
- Trey YesavagePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6B. Montgomery singled to center, Benintendi scored, B. Montgomery thrown out at second.3–0
- 6C. Montgomery homered to right center (388 feet).2–0
- 4Benintendi hit sacrifice fly to center, Vargas scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 50%
- ML CHW -112 / TOR -108
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- CHW: Elo 46.3%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- CHW -102
- TOR +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.0 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | 0 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +26 Elo | TOR 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 24th of 3020–29 | Road vs home | 25–2620th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 20th of 301489 | Elo rating | 150414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–46 | 47–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 21–34 |
| Underdog | 43–27 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders | 55–40–2 | 50–44–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 8–15 TOR in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.