Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting1-3
- Noah SchultzPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Duran singled to left, Nimmo scored.0–10
- 5Langford homered to left (397 feet), Osuna scored.0–9
- 5Osuna singled to right, Duran scored and Cauley scored.0–7
- 4Lopez singled to center, Osuna scored, Foscue to second.0–5
- 4Osuna singled to left, Díaz scored.0–4
- 3Burger doubled to left, Jung scored, Nimmo to third.0–3
- 1Nimmo homered to left (351 feet), Langford scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 51%
- ML CHW -105 / TEX -114
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 52.4%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -104
- CHW +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.2 – 4.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −10 | CHW: Noah Schultz: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +17 Elo | TEX 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3022–29 | Road vs home | 24–2317th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 18th of 301495 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–46 | 44–56 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 17–34 |
| Underdog | 45–27 | 27–22 |
| Overs–unders | 56–41–2 | 51–42–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 10–0 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–16 TEX in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 20.