Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Stewart homered to right center (369 feet), Arroyo scored and Hayes scored.5–3
- 4Raley singled to center, Arozarena scored and Naylor scored.2–3
- 4Myers reached on infield single to second, Stephenson scored.2–1
- 4Bleday homered to right (396 feet).1–1
- 2Raleigh singled to right, Naylor scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML CIN +144 / SEA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 57.6%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -155
- CIN +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 4.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | 0 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +53 Elo | SEA 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 13th of 3024–26 | Road vs home | 30–229th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 24th of 301479 | Elo rating | 15139th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–49 | 44–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–21 | 31–47 |
| Underdog | 36–28 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 56–43–1 | 48–47–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 4–7 SEA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.