Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Osuna doubled to center, Lopez scored and Carter scored.1–7
- 5Crawford doubled to right, Raley scored.1–5
- 2Duran singled to center, Langford scored.0–5
- 2Langford doubled to left, Pederson scored.0–4
- 1Lopez grounded out to shortstop, Nimmo scored, Carter to third.0–3
- 1Carter doubled to left, Duran scored, Nimmo to third.0–2
- 1Duran tripled to right, Langford scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 50%
- ML SEA -108 / TEX -111
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 52.1%, market 50.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -101
- SEA +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.5 – 3.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +6 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +14 Elo | TEX 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 50.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3021–30 | Road vs home | 26–2414th of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 10th of 301510 | Elo rating | 149617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–59 | 45–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–48 | 18–35 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 27–23 |
| Overs–unders | 49–48–7 | 53–43–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2–3 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 26–20 TEX in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 46.