Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani doubled to right, Rushing scored on error, Ohtani safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Robles.7–6
- 8Canzone homered to center (414 feet), Rodríguez scored.7–5
- 6Canzone homered to center (433 feet).5–5
- 5Muncy homered to right (430 feet).4–5
- 4Ohtani singled to center, Edman scored, Rushing to second, Tucker to third.4–4
- 4Edman doubled to center, Betts scored.4–3
- 4Refsnyder homered to left (356 feet), Naylor scored.4–2
- 4Rodríguez homered to left (402 feet).2–2
- 3Freeman grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Rushing scored, Pages out at second, Ohtani to third.1–2
- 2Raleigh homered to left (403 feet).1–1
- 1Ohtani homered to center (432 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 67%
- ML SEA +193 / LAD -238
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 63.8%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -206
- SEA +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 5.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +10 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +99 Elo | LAD 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.51st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3022–32 | Road vs home | 31–193rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149130th of 30 |
| 12th of 301506 | Elo rating | 15691st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–61 | 50–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–49 | 44–54 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 52–48–7 | 48–56–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–9 LAD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.