Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Dalton RushingBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Realmuto singled to left, Marsh scored.9–5
- 8Bohm singled to right, Turner scored, Harper to second.9–4
- 8Edman tripled to center, Freeman, Betts and T. Hernández scored.9–3
- 8Tucker hit sacrifice fly to center, Pages scored.6–3
- 6Muncy homered to center (415 feet), Freeman scored.5–3
- 5De La Cruz homered to center (404 feet).3–3
- 5Rushing doubled to right, Edman and T. Hernández scored.3–2
- 3Rushing homered to center (438 feet).1–2
- 1Bohm homered to left (411 feet), Schwarber scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 54%
- ML LAD -131 / PHI +109
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.7%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.9 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −22 | LAD: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 1.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +47 Elo | LAD 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3033–19 | Road vs home | 27–2411th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301568 | Elo rating | 15257th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–54 | 44–58 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 42–52 | 31–43 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders | 46–55–1 | 42–55–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 13–14 PHI in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 27.
- Jul 21LAD 2 @ PHI 1Picked PHI 51%Miss
- Jul 20LAD 7 @ PHI 10Picked PHI 58%Hit
- May 31PHI 1 @ LAD 9Picked LAD 68%Hit
- May 30PHI 4 @ LAD 3Picked LAD 53%Miss
- May 29PHI 2 @ LAD 4Picked LAD 51%Hit
- Oct 9PHI 1 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 55%Hit
- Oct 8PHI 8 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 62%Miss
- Oct 6LAD 4 @ PHI 3PlayoffsPicked PHI 50%Miss