Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Tommy EdmanBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HurtPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chisholm Jr. homered to left center (402 feet).1–2
- 8Edman homered to right center (387 feet).1–1
- 1Bellinger singled to center, Goldschmidt scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 56%
- ML LAD -144 / NYY +119
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.0%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -129
- NYY +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.8 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | 0 | LAD: Will Klein: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Yarbrough: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +21 Elo | LAD 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 1st of 3032–17 | Road vs home | 23–2216th of 30 |
| 30th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301570 | Elo rating | 15373rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–52 | 50–48 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 42–51 | 37–41 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 45–53–1 | 42–51–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 11–5 NYY in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.
- Jul 19LAD 8 @ NYY 2Picked LAD 54%Hit
- Jul 17LAD 2 @ NYY 1Picked LAD 51%Hit
- Jun 1NYY 7 @ LAD 3Picked LAD 61%Miss
- May 31NYY 2 @ LAD 18Picked NYY 53%Miss
- May 30NYY 5 @ LAD 8Picked NYY 54%Miss
- Oct 30LAD 7 @ NYY 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Miss
- Oct 29LAD 4 @ NYY 11PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Hit
- Oct 28LAD 4 @ NYY 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Miss