Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching9.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Volpe singled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored.8–2
- 8Freeman hit sacrifice fly to center, Edman scored.8–1
- 8Ohtani singled to right, Rushing scored, Edman to third.7–1
- 8Edman singled to right, T. Hernández scored and Tucker scored, Rushing to second.6–1
- 8T. Hernández hit a ground rule double, Muncy scored, Tucker to third.4–1
- 5Pages doubled to right, Edman scored.3–1
- 4Grisham homered to right (402 feet).2–1
- 3Freeman singled to center, Ohtani scored.2–0
- 3Ohtani doubled to right, Edman scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 54%
- ML LAD -131 / NYY +109
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 51.7%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -119
- NYY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.9 – 3.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +13 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +12 Elo | LAD 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 1st of 3031–17 | Road vs home | 23–2115th of 30 |
| 30th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 1st of 301568 | Elo rating | 15403rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–52 | 50–47 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 41–51 | 37–41 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 44–53–1 | 41–51–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 10–5 NYY in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.
- Jul 17LAD 2 @ NYY 1Picked LAD 51%Hit
- Jun 1NYY 7 @ LAD 3Picked LAD 61%Miss
- May 31NYY 2 @ LAD 18Picked NYY 53%Miss
- May 30NYY 5 @ LAD 8Picked NYY 54%Miss
- Oct 30LAD 7 @ NYY 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Miss
- Oct 29LAD 4 @ NYY 11PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Hit
- Oct 28LAD 4 @ NYY 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Miss
- Oct 26NYY 2 @ LAD 4PlayoffsPicked LAD 54%Hit