New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ewing doubled to left, Young scored.4–1
- 8Turner homered to left (383 feet).3–1
- 7Alvarez homered to left (363 feet).3–0
- 7Baty homered to right center (378 feet).2–0
- 3Alvarez homered to center (416 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML NYM +104 / PHI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.1%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -113
- NYM +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.6 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −26 | NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 1.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +28 Elo | PHI 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 25th of 3019–29 | Road vs home | 25–2110th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 25th of 301477 | Elo rating | 15275th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–54 | 42–55 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–36 | 29–41 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders | 45–43–9 | 41–51–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 24–25 PHI in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 49.