Boston Red Sox at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Mets- Brett BatyBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baty homered to right (384 feet).6–2
- 9Abreu homered to right center (376 feet), Rafaela scored.6–1
- 7Seigler homered to left (352 feet), Cheng scored.4–1
- 3Soto hit sacrifice fly to left, Baty scored on error, Ewing safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Durbin.2–1
- 1Yoshida doubled to left, Abreu scored and Seigler scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML BOS +123 / NYM -148
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 45.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -133
- BOS +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.4 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +4 | BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +29 Elo | BOS 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 7th of 3026–21 | Road vs home | 21–2524th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 7th of 301520 | Elo rating | 148322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–48 | 43–51 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 23–33 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 41–46–4 | 44–41–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–5 NYM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.