Boston Red Sox at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Andruw MonasterioBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac ThorntonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Seigler hit sacrifice fly to left, Yoshida scored.3–2
- 9Duran singled to right, Cheng scored, Monasterio to second, Durbin to third.2–2
- 9Monasterio walked, Rafaela scored, Durbin to second, Cheng to third.1–2
- 6Lindor homered to left center (377 feet).0–2
- 1Lindor doubled to left, Ewing scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML BOS -115 / NYM -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +2 | BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Zac Thornton: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +21 Elo | BOS 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 5th of 3028–21 | Road vs home | 21–2727th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301525 | Elo rating | 147824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–48 | 43–53 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 23–35 |
| Underdog | 25–15 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 42–47–4 | 45–42–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–5 NYM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.