Boston Red Sox at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Andruw MonasterioBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RiveraPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-3
- Freddy PeraltaPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yoshida homered to right (360 feet), Durbin scored.4–0
- 4Monasterio homered to left (378 feet), Durbin scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 56%
- ML BOS +119 / NYM -144
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 46.5%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -129
- BOS +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.5 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −8 | BOS: Eduardo Rivera (no track record yet) · NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +25 Elo | BOS 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 5th of 3027–21 | Road vs home | 21–2626th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 6th of 301523 | Elo rating | 148024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–48 | 43–52 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 23–34 |
| Underdog | 24–15 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 42–46–4 | 45–41–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–5 NYM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.