New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alan RangelPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bohm homered to left (396 feet).6–1
- 6Soto singled to center, Torrens scored, Ewing to third.6–0
- 2Benge hit sacrifice fly to right, Soto scored, Lindor to second, Bichette to third.5–0
- 2Lindor singled to right, Torrens scored, Bichette to second, Soto to third.4–0
- 2Torrens doubled to left, Baty scored.3–0
- 1Lindor homered to right (420 feet), Bichette scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYM -126 / PHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 44.4%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −25 | NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Alan Rangel: team allows 1.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +39 Elo | PHI 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 25th of 3020–30 | Road vs home | 26–2210th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 25th of 301478 | Elo rating | 15277th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–55 | 43–56 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–36 | 30–42 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders | 45–45–9 | 41–53–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 25–26 PHI in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 51.