New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Tyrone TaylorBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Harper singled to right, Stott scored and Turner scored, Schwarber to second.1–6
- 5Bohm singled to left, Schwarber scored.1–4
- 5Turner homered to left center (414 feet).1–3
- 2Taylor homered to left center (406 feet).1–2
- 1Schwarber homered to right (399 feet), Turner scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 61%
- ML NYM +144 / PHI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 62.1%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- PHI -155
- NYM +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.0 – 5.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +8 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +86 Elo | PHI 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 3020–29 | Road vs home | 25–2211th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 25th of 301480 | Elo rating | 15257th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–54 | 42–56 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–36 | 29–42 |
| Underdog | 21–18 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders | 45–44–9 | 41–52–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 25–25 PHI in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 50.