Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 4Muncy homered to center (421 feet), Pages scored.2–1
- 1Bohm singled to left, Harper scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML LAD -106 / PHI -114
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 49.3%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- LAD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +24 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 1.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +5 Elo | LAD 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 1st of 3032–19 | Road vs home | 27–2310th of 30 |
| 30th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301567 | Elo rating | 15267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–54 | 44–57 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 42–52 | 31–42 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders | 46–54–1 | 42–54–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 12–14 PHI in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 26.
- Jul 20LAD 7 @ PHI 10Picked PHI 58%Hit
- May 31PHI 1 @ LAD 9Picked LAD 68%Hit
- May 30PHI 4 @ LAD 3Picked LAD 53%Miss
- May 29PHI 2 @ LAD 4Picked LAD 51%Hit
- Oct 9PHI 1 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 55%Hit
- Oct 8PHI 8 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 62%Miss
- Oct 6LAD 4 @ PHI 3PlayoffsPicked PHI 50%Miss
- Oct 4LAD 5 @ PHI 3PlayoffsPicked PHI 52%Miss