Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Kyle TuckerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Mets- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alvarez homered to left (401 feet).4–2
- 8Tucker homered to right center (386 feet), Freeman scored.4–1
- 7Ohtani hit sacrifice fly to center, T. Hernández scored, Rushing to third.2–1
- 4Rojas hit sacrifice fly to right, Freeman scored.1–1
- 2Robert Jr. homered to left (381 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 53%
- ML LAD -126 / NYM +104
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.6 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −16 | LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +80 Elo | LAD 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 1st of 3034–19 | Road vs home | 21–2828th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 1st of 301570 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–54 | 47–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 43–52 | 24–36 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 23–20 |
| Overs–unders | 47–55–1 | 46–48–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 17–11 NYM in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 28.