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New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, Brewers.TV, SNY

Away

Mets

42-59

3–8

at

Home

Brewers

63-37

NYM 34%MIL 66%

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American Family Field · MLB.TV, Brewers.TV, SNY

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.

MIL75%50%75%NYMStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mets
  • Bo BichetteBatting2-3
  • Freddy PeraltaPitching5.1 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Brewers
  • Andrew VaughnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Jacob MisiorowskiPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Polanco singled to right, Bichette scored.3–8
  • 8Lindor grounded out to first, Soto scored, Bichette to third.2–8
  • 6Ortiz homered to left (373 feet), Bauers scored and Pratt scored.1–8
  • 3Vaughn homered to center (393 feet), Mitchell scored.1–5
  • 3Soto grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Alvarez scored, Ewing out at second.1–3
  • 2Pratt homered to center (393 feet).0–3
  • 1Mitchell singled to right, Turang scored.0–2
  • 1Turang doubled to right, Chourio scored.0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Brewers 66%

SolidHit
NYM 34%MIL 66%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.

Market
MIL 66%
ML NYM +183 / MIL -224
Pre-line forecast
MIL 65%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIL 67%
Ratings vs. market
+0.6 pts
MIL: Elo 66.8%, market 66.2%
Fair odds
MIL -196
NYM +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NYM 3.0 – 4.5 MIL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYMMILWhy
Team rating14811568Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−5+11NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMIL +121 EloMIL 66.8%
Market-implied ratingsMIL 65.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIL 65.5%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIL 66.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers compared, with each team's league rank
NYMStatMIL
26th of 304.1Runs scored5.14th of 30
19th of 304.7Runs allowed3.72nd of 30
26th of 30−0.6Margin+1.32nd of 30
13th of 305–5Last 106–46th of 30
25th of 3021–30Road vs home32–183rd of 30
20th of 301499Opponent Elo149917th of 30
22nd of 301481Elo rating15681st of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MetsBrewers
14501500155016001650league averageAprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYMMIL
Run line45–5554–45
Last 105–55–5
Favorite24–3633–37
Underdog21–1921–8
Overs–unders45–46–944–52–3
Overs–unders, last 104–65–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NYM 6–16 MIL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.