Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Griffin ConineBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Garrett MitchellBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Shane DrohanPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Conine homered to left center (404 feet), Hicks scored and Jiménez scored.6–8
- 7Yelich doubled to left, Pratt scored and Shewmake scored.3–8
- 6Mitchell doubled to left, Chourio scored and Yelich scored.3–6
- 6Chourio singled to center, Ortiz scored and Shewmake scored, Yelich to second.3–4
- 3Contreras doubled to right, Chourio scored.3–2
- 2Shewmake hit sacrifice fly to center, Mitchell scored.3–1
- 2Lopez hit sacrifice fly to center, Jiménez scored.3–0
- 2Mack grounded into fielder's choice to first, Hicks scored, Ruiz out at second, Jiménez to third.2–0
- 2Jiménez singled to left, Sanoja scored, Hicks to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML MIA +113 / MIL -136
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -123
- MIA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −3 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Shane Drohan: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +73 Elo | MIL 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 3021–26 | Road vs home | 30–183rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 16th of 301502 | Elo rating | 15652nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–48 | 52–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–25 | 31–37 |
| Underdog | 28–23 | 21–8 |
| Overs–unders | 51–44–3 | 43–51–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 11–12 MIL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.